Generally speaking, there isn’t a lot of mystery about what the Chiefs do on offense. Patrick Mahomes is a generational talent at quarterback and he has two of the league’s best weapons at his disposal in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Hill gets targeted on 25% of his routes, Kelce gets targeted on 21% of his routes and the scraps tend to go to Sammy Watkins. Honestly, that’s pretty set-in-stone. However, if there is an area of contention on the team’s roster, it’s at running back.
Due to injuries, load management and splitting snaps, not a single person on Kansas City finished the season with at least 500 yards rushing. Damien Williams, who led the team with 111 carries, finished the year ranked 40th in the entire league in that category. It was just never entirely clear who the bell cow was going to be on any given week and Andy Reid’s veiled actions regarding LeSean McCoy didn’t make things easier. On two separate occasions in 2019-20, Reid made McCoy a healthy inactive, stating that he was saving the veteran’s legs for the playoffs. Then, in Week 17, McCoy was active against the Chargers, but proceeded to not register a single offensive snap. With nearly a month off since garnering six carries versus the Broncos on Dec. 15, can we honestly expect a “fresh” McCoy to suddenly be a major part of the Chiefs’ attack?
Fantasy Football Analysis, Kansas City Chiefs RBs Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy
I think risk assessment is a good way to think about Williams’ possible value this weekend. As an overwhelming home favorite in a matchup where his opponent has surrendered the sixth-most DKFP per game to opposing RBs, Williams is only $8K in Showdown contests. He’s the better pass catching option and, despite the fact that both he and McCoy have averaged 5.0 yards per touch this season, he’s the more explosive of the duo. Best case scenario? Williams sees at least 70% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps — as he’s done in three of his past five starts — and he benefits from heavy volume and a high implied point total. Worst case? McCoy’s active and involved, but, considering the veteran has yet to log a 50% snap share this season, Williams is still the larger half of a committee. Seems like an acceptable range of outcomes to me.
Start Williams. Sit McCoy.