One of the best ways to get some skin in the game is by betting on player props. By doing so, you can take advantage of a particular player who is in a good matchup or maybe even a bad one. In this piece, we’ll get into the receiving yard props for the Divisional Round by looking at who to consider and why. Let’s dive in!
Odds on favorite: Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers, +650
Unlike some of the other props, you can bet on like most passing or rushing yards, the odds for receiving yards start off quite large. For example, Patrick Mahomes leads most passing yards with +110 odds while Derrick Henry leads rushing yards with +300. Getting someone like Adams, who has surpassed 100 receiving yards five times this season, certainly feels enticing. Adams is, of course, Aaron Rodgers’ number one target and will continue to be so against the Seahawks. Adams dominates in target share on the Packers, averaging 10.5 per game and saw double-digit targets in eight of his 12 games. With Adams averaging 83 yards per game, it firmly puts him in place to lead this weekend in receiving yards. The Seahawks could arguably double-team him in coverage to force Rodgers to look elsewhere but they also allow an average of 148 receiving yards per game and 12.3 YPR, so it’s not as if they’ve been successful in this realm, to begin with.
Sleeper Pick: D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks, +1400
It’s hard to put the term “sleeper” and Metcalf together in the same sentence after setting the record for a rookie in receiving yards during an NFL playoff game last week. Nonetheless, the odds feel too high for him after his 160-yard performance against the Eagles. With numbers like that, he’s one of my favorite guys to consider this weekend. For a guy as big as he is, this is someone who is averaging 16.3 YPR and made a catch of 30+ yards in eight of his 17 games this season. He’s quickly gained the trust of Russell Wilson, who’ll potentially be playing catchup as they’re listed as -4 underdogs against the Packers. The Packers secondary has been beatable and they ended the year allowing an average of 137 receiving yards to opposing receivers over the last four weeks. With the way Metcalf has been targeted as of late, I wouldn’t have been surprised to see him somewhere in the +900 range, so getting him at +1400 feels like a steal. Don’t overthink this one too much.
Long Shot: Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers, +2000
We have some massive odds for Samuel, who has been busy as of late catching everything thrown his way. To cap off the season, Samuel amassed 102 receiving yards against the Seahawks (Hello, Davante Adams at +650) on five receptions. Samuel has surpassed 100+ receiving yards three times this season but his yardage also fluctuates on a week-to-week basis, hence the large odds. For example, prior to his 102 yards against the Seahawks, Samuel only had 31, 29 and 76 yards the three weeks prior. Still, his ability to rip off a huge catch firmly puts him into the conversation, especially when you consider the ROI if he were able to top everyone else in the field this weekend. The Vikings secondary is extremely soft and has allowed the most receptions to opposing receivers in the entire league as well as 12 YPR. I wouldn’t bet the house on Samuel but he needs some attention if you’re looking to take a shot with multiple receivers.
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