Packers vs. Seahawks matchup statistics for Divisional round

Now that we are in the playoffs, we can dig a little deeper into the defensive statistics for each playoff matchup. It is true that statistics can lie or at least obscure the truth we need to see, but on the whole, they can give us a decent idea how teams are attacked on average.

If a team gives up a ton of rushing yards, we can infer that their opponents have a reason to run against them. Maybe they just can’t stop the run or their pass defense is so good teams need to run or maybe game flow has them trailing more often than not and teams look to salt away the game on the ground. At this point in the season we can feel somewhat confident in what a team’s strengths and weaknesses are.

These stats should help us when we go to set our DFS lineups, especially the Showdown slate for this game. Below I have given us the statistics allowed for each position on the season and just below that, for the last eight games of the season for some context on how team defenses are doing more recently. I’ve also opened up the comments on these posts if you have any questions about the statistics.

For this post we’ll look at the Packers and the Seahawks.

Both teams have managed good touchdown to interception ratios and are ranked 5th and 6th in passing touchdowns allowed on the season. Green Bay ranks 10th in DVOA against the pass and Seattle ranks 15th. Those rankings seem to match the production they’ve allowed through the air this year.

The Packers have allowed two or more touchdowns to Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, Matt Moore and Jimmy Garoppolo while allowing just seven touchdowns to nine interceptions over their last eight games. The Seahawks have allowed multiple touchdown games to Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph, Teddy Bridgewater, Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff, along with eight games of 275 yards passing or more.

Both Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers have the ability to put up numbers, but these aren’t smash spots. I like Rodgers’ matchup better and he also plays better at home while Wilson has been the better fantasy quarterback this season. That pushes them close together in projected fantasy points if this game were to rest on both of their shoulders in a tight matchup.

Neither of these teams is especially good at stopping running backs, as the Seahawks fell to 24th in DK points allowed in the second half of the season while the Packers ranked 24th overall. Green Bay’s 4.86 yards per carry allowed ranked fourth-worst in the league while Seattle’s 18 rushing touchdowns allowed ranked second-worst.

The Packers will get Jamaal Williams back this week, which hurts Aaron Jones’ upside, but he does get a good enough matchup to give him good upside. The Seahawks have taken multiple hits at the running back position and now have Marshawn Lynch out of retirement and a rookie in Travis Homer splitting work. Pete Carroll has said that Lynch will continue to see more work as he gets acclimated to the NFL again, so he could take over the lead role this week in a good matchup. He hasn’t shown his old burst but he has broken tackles and scored twice near the goal line since returning.

Seattle’s DVOA against the pass has them ranked 15th while the Packers are ranked 10th and that seems to show similarly in the DK points they’ve allowed to wide receivers this season. The Packers gave up the second-fewest receptions to receivers but extremely similar yardage numbers to the Seahawks, who allowed 47 fewer receptions. That shows that the Packers allow big plays to wide receivers and the Seahawks have big play receivers.

Aaron Rodgers will focus on Davante Adams, as the rest of his receiving group is average at best. Seattle has given up good fantasy days to John Ross, Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Robert Woods, D.J. Moore, Larry Fitzgerald and Deebo Samuel again. They can be beaten by wide receivers and Adams should see enough work to make him a safe bet this week.

The weakest link this chart shows us is for left wide receivers against the Seahawks. That’s usually going to be a matchup with Trey Flowers, who grade out as the worst starting corner back in Seattle by Pro Football Focus. Davante Adams lines up 38 percent of the time out left, 29 percent in the slot and 33 percent on the right side on the season, but since his return from his foot injury, Adams hasn’t played in the slot as much and has spent more time on the left side at 47 percent. More time against Flowers should be to his benefit.

Both the Seahawks and Packers are below average against tight ends this season, which should give both Jimmy Graham and Jacob Hollister a chance to make a few plays. Neither have been putting up good numbers of late, but both should see enough work to be on the fantasy radar this week.