One of the best ways to get some skin in the game is by betting on player props. By doing so, you can take advantage of a particular player who is in a good matchup or maybe even a bad one. In this piece, we’ll get into the passing yard props for the Divisional Round by looking at who to consider and why. Let’s dive in!
Odds on favorite: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs +110
It’s no surprise to see Mahomes as the favorite to take down this bet going up against the Texans. This is a defense, and I use that term loosely, that allows an average of 279 passing yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks were able to throw for over 300 yards eight times this season and overall averaged 12 yards per completion. Mahomes isn’t afraid to throw the ball and averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game and 287 yards per game. I think we can all agree that Mahomes wasn’t in tip-top shape in his prior matchup against the Texans this season where he completed only 54.3% of his 35 attempts for 273 yards. Even in a poor looking line like that, he still threw for three touchdowns.
Mahomes has shown over the final weeks of the season that he is back to good health and should be in line to pick apart whatever the Texans call their defense. It’s rare you can get a Mahomes prop at plus money, so I would take advantage of this.
Sleeper Pick: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks +800
The Seahawks are underdogs in their matchup against the Packers this weekend. For a team that once upon a time had Chris Carson, Elijah Penny and C.J. Prosise at running back, they’ve now been reduced to Marshawn Lynch and Travis Homer. Not that there isn’t anything wrong with that but it certainly is a far cry from where they were. With this in mind and the potential situation of the Seahawks trying to comeback in this game, Wilson could be a sneaky play to take down this crown. We just saw Wilson throw for 325 yards in a win over the Eagles, which was his highest total since Week 9 against the Buccaneers when he threw for 378 yards.
On the season, the Packers allow an average of only 249 passing yards per game but a lot of that had to do with their end of year schedule. Over the final four games of the year, opposing quarterbacks struggled to surpass 170 passing yards as the Packers faced Dwayne Haskins, Mitch Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and David Blough. Those players averaged 187 passing yards, which really brought down the Packers overall average. With the game script in his favor, it wouldn’t surprise me for Wilson to take down this prop and giving you a significant ROI in the process.
Long Shot: Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans +1600
Do I think Tannehill can realistically win this bet? No. Does the game script play in his favor? It does indeed, so we have to at least consider it. To be fair, Tannehill is averaging only 234 passing yards in his 12 games this season, which doesn’t exactly scream for you to bet him. However, if the Titans go down early, they could be forced to ride Tannehill’s arm more than they will the legs of Derrick Henry. While the game plan is working out great, Henry has taken away the need to use Tannehill, who hasn’t thrown the ball more than 27 times over the last three weeks. In fact, he only made 15 pass attempts in the 20-13 win over the Patriots during their Wild Card game win. Henry is essentially game proof and he’ll be utilized regardless but with the Titans as +9.5 underdogs, Tannehill may have no choice but to air the ball out. To his credit, we’ve seen some big yardage games from him already this season, most recently against the Raiders when the threw for 391 yards on 27 attempts in Week 14. If you’re looking to a big bet to sweat, Tannehill could provide that for you.
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