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Figuring out two teams doing unsustainable things

The Packers and Seahawks square off in the Divisional Round. Both teams have been winning close ones, which makes this a tough one to call.

The Green Bay Packers host the Seattle Seahawks this weekend in a Divisional Round game that is a rematch of their wild 2015 NFC title game. The Seahawks stormed back from a 19-7 deficit in the fourth quarter to eventually win in overtime. This time, the Seahawks come off a 17-9 Wild Card round win over the Eagles while the Packers enter coming off a first round bye.

The Packers opened as a four-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total at 46. The line now sits at 4.5, and the point total is up to 47 as of Friday morning. The Packers are -210 on the money line and the Seahawks are +180. The Packers are 10-6 against the spread this season, and have gone over the point total six times. The Seahawks are 8-8-1 ATS and have gone over the point total eight times.

Injury report

Seattle’s offensive line is in trouble. Guard Mike Iupati is doubtful, and both offensive tackles, Duane Brown and George Fant are questionable after getting in one limited practice this weeks. They face a shaky Packers run defense, but that Packers pass rush could create some havoc against the Seahawks banged-up offensive line.

The Packers face game-day decisions with two defensive linemen. Kenny Clark was limited this week with a back injury, while Tyler Lancaster caught the bug that’s been going around and missed practice Thursday and Friday. Both are questionable for the game.

Pick against the spread

This is a really tough game to figure out. We’ve got two teams that have won a combined 25 games heading into the Divisional Round, but one could argue they’ve both done it in unsustainable manners. The Packers have been outgained in total yardage this season, while the Seahawks have won 11 of 12 games by one score. That includes two overtime wins and three games against the Bengals, Steelers and Rams that were by a combined four points.

These are not bad football teams, but they’re winning in ways that do not offer a ton of room for projection. Well, other than to say this will probably be a close game. With that in mind, how do you bet it? I think Green Bay is going to win, but I’m going to take the 4.5 points with Seattle. I was prepared to lay the points early in the week, but given the numbers, I’m not seeing that. A three or four point Packers win seems the most likely outcome.

If you’re looking for a best bet, consider this: Aaron Rodgers is 62-1-1 at Lambeau Field with a halftime lead, and Russell Wilson is 65-7 all time with halftime lead anywhere (h/t Bet The Board podcast). Consider a halftime bet on the team that is leading.

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA) or 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN) or 1-800-522-4700 (NH). NH/NJ/WV/IN/PA only. 21+ (18+ NH). Eligibility Restrictions Apply. See website for details.