clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Best Divisional Round DFS options: Russell Wilson vs. Aaron Rodgers

Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers are a couple of playoff-tested quarterbacks going head-to-head at Lambeau Field for a chance to go to the NFC Championship Game. So which one makes for the better fantasy option?

Russell Wilson ($6,600) and Aaron Rodgers ($6,500) are extremely similar in salary and matchup on paper for this weekend’s four-game main slate on DraftKings. The two will matchup with a trip to the NFC Championship on the line, with Green Bay a four-point home favorite, and the total set at 47 points.

Fantasy football analysis: Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers

Wilson is slightly more expensive here by $100 on the main slate and $600 in Showdown. The reality is that these are two very similar plays, and playing in the same game makes it even more unlikely for one to really separate themselves from the other in terms of fantasy value for this week. But we can still breakdown the matchup and spot each QB is in, and see if there are any small edges to be had.

Wilson averages 21.7 DKFP this season, and will face a Green Bay defense that ranks 12th in DKFP allowed to the QB position. Russ was a much better fantasy QB at home this season, though, where he averaged 24.7 DKFP versus just 19.1 DKFP on the road. However, Wilson is coming off a strong road performance outdoors in Philly last week, passing for 325 yards and a touchdown, and rushing for another 45 yards (24.5 DKFP).

Rodgers averages 18.6 DKFP this season, and has a slightly better matchup against Seattle, which ranks 15th in DKFP allowed to QB. The key factor here is that Rodgers is at home, where he averaged 20.3 DKFP this season, versus just 17.0 DKFP in road games.

Another storyline to monitor for this game is the weather, as it could be a cold, snowy night at Lambeau Field by the time this game kicks off. Fortunately, both quarterbacks are extremely experienced, and have played through all kinds of weather. But if wind is going to be a factor, it could limit both passing games.

The bottom line is that Patrick Mahomes ($7,500) and Deshaun Watson ($6,700) will garner the majority of the QB ownership on this slate, not to mention Lamar Jackson ($8,400), if you can afford him. So playing either of these quarterbacks should get you low-ish ownership with the potential for a big game.

The final factor in making a decision here is how much both team’s running games could factor in. Aaron Jones ($7,400) has a great matchup against Seattle, and at least 25 touches in two consecutive games. Seattle just lost its two best RBs, and is relying on Travis Homer ($5,100) and recently un-retired Marshawn Lynch ($4,800).

DFS Recommendation

Start Wilson over Rodgers on DK

I am an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.