Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson are two of the best fantasy and real life quarterbacks in the league and now they go to head to head in the Divisional round of the playoffs. These teams met earlier this season in Week 6 and the Texans came out on top with both quarterbacks putting up good fantasy numbers.
Watson wasn’t great as a passer, as he threw two interceptions but he also completed 30-of-42 passes (71.4%) for 280 yards and a touchdown and rushed 10 times for 42 yards and two touchdowns. Mahomes wasn’t as efficient as he completed 19-of-35 passes (54.3%) for 273 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, while also losing a fumble. His 20.8 DK points were eclipsed by Watson’s 31.4. Two rushing touchdowns aren’t always going to happen for Watson, but he has done it twice this season and has a total of eight on the year, so that is a nice boost to his fantasy production.
Watson has averaged 21 DK points on the road and 23.4 on the season while Mahomes has averaged 21.9 DK points at home and 22.5 on the season. Mahomes did have an ankle injury the last time these two teams met and he’s played at less than 100 percent for a chunk of games, but Watson hasn’t been completely healthy either. Both have similar upsides, as Watson’s rushing ability boost him up and Mahomes’ ability to hit the 300 yard bonus and rack up the passing touchdowns helps him.
The matchup here favors Mahomes on paper. The Texans have given up the third-most DK points to opposing quarterbacks while the Chiefs have allowed the 13th fewest and since Week 10 they’ve given up the third-fewest while the Texans have allowed the second-most in that same span.
The upside with Watson is that he finds ways to put up fantasy points on the ground or by slipping out of a sure sack to hit a receiver for a touchdown even when he isn’t playing exceptionally well.
But, with two exceptional quarterbacks who have similar upsides, I have to lean toward the matchup and the Chiefs have been playing pass defense at a top level of late while the Texans have done the opposite. The price differential does make things much closer, as Watson is at $6,700 while Mahomes is at $7,500. That almost makes them a pick-em for me, but I’m going to still lean Mahomes, as he feels like the safer pick this week.
Play Mahomes over Watson in DFS.