Betting on touchdown props on DraftKings Sportsbook is fun. That doesn’t always mean it is profitable, but for fantasy players that also gamble, prop bets are often right in our wheelhouse. We need to know what player might score a touchdown so we can get those fantasy points while betting the line has us take a larger view of the game.
When looking at the TD prop bets, you’ll usually see the running backs with the best odds, while we get the backups and secondary receivers as we go down the line. We know some ancillary player will likely get into the end zone, but who?
You can also bet on the first and last touchdown scored. We get much better odds on those, and even picking a goal-line back who sees a bunch of touches near the end zone can give you odds that are worth a wager. In this matchup, the passing game is king, so that has Tyreek Hill and DeAndre Hopkins as the odds on favorites to score, but Carlos Hyde and Damien Williams are both goal-line backs and can be set up for easy scores.
Looking at recent usage and matchups, we’ll go through a few of my favorite touchdown wagers for this game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
First To Score a touchdown
Favorite: Tyreek Hill (+600)
Sleeper: Carlos Hyde (+1200)
Longshot: Patrick Mahomes (+2800)
Favorite: Damien Williams (-125)
Sleeper: DeShaun Watson (+250)
Longshot: Demarcus Robinson (+450)
Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs
This game sets up great for the Chiefs passing game, as the Texans have one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Add in Andy Reid’s ability to game plan with an extra week and there’s plenty of reason to like Chiefs to score often in this game. A quick strike to Hill to start the game is very much in the cards, and he is my favorite for that first touchdown.
Carlos Hyde, RB, Texans
Hyde put up a big game in Kansas City earlier this season and there’s no reason the Texans won’t try to run the ball similarly this time around. If they can, Hyde is set up well as the goal line back
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
Mahomes rushed the ball seven times in Week 17 and appears to be completely healthy and willing to take off when the opportunity arrives. He has two rushing touchdowns in his last five games and had one last year in the divisional round against the Colts. He’s going to do whatever he needs to do to win and running in a touchdown is well within his ability this week.
Damien Williams, RB, Chiefs
Williams has seven touchdowns on the season and has missed five games and seen ten or fewer touches in three more. IN his last two games, he has three touchdowns, with two on the ground and one through the air. The Texans are the worst team statistically at stopping running backs in the passing game, which should give Williams different avenues to find the end zone this week against a poor defense.
DeShaun Watson, QB, Texans
Watson is my favorite anytime touchdown play this week. He has eight rushing touchdowns on the season and 15 in his short career. He ran the ball 14 times last week with his team trailing, in large part due to the Bills pass defense taking away his receivers. The Chiefs have been extremely stout against the pass this season and intercepted Watson twice in their first matchup, which made Watson go to the ground, rushing 10 times for 42 yards and two touchdowns. In his six games with rushing touchdowns, he’s thrown just six touchdowns and ran for eight. If the passing game isn’t clicking, he’s going to run and the Chiefs stifled him through the air in Week 6 and have allowed just five passing touchdowns to 10 interceptions over their last six games.
Demarcus Robinson, WR, Chiefs
Robinson doesn’t see a ton of targets but when he does, they’re coming from last year’s MVP. In Week 17 Robinson saw just two targets but one of them was a bb from Mahomes for a 24-yard touchdown.
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