Betting on touchdown props on DraftKings Sportsbook is fun. That doesn’t always mean it is profitable, but for fantasy players that also gamble, prop bets are often right in our wheelhouse. We need to know what player might score a touchdown so we can get those fantasy points while betting the line has us take a larger view of the game.
When looking at the TD prop bets, you’ll usually see the running backs with the best odds, while we get the backups and secondary receivers as we go down the line. We know some ancillary player will likely get into the end zone, but who?
You can also bet on the first and last touchdown scored. We get much better odds on those, and even picking a goal-line back who sees a bunch of touches near the end zone can give you odds that are worth a wager. For example, Derrick Henry is the Titans’ most productive touchdown scorer, and you can get his odds at +600 to score the first touchdown of the game, with his odds at -134 to score at any point during the game.
Looking at recent usage and matchups, we’ll go through a few of my favorite touchdown wagers for this game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
First To Score a touchdown
Favorite: Derrick Henry (+600)
Sleeper: A.J. Brown (+1200)
Longshot: Hayden Hurst (+1800)
Favorite: Derrick Henry (-134)
Sleeper: A.J. Brown (+215)
Longshot: Hayden Hurst (+325)
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
Henry is a massive, bruising back that is measured at roughly 6’3”, 250 lbs, making him an extremely powerful force in red zone situations. Henry was tied for the NFL lead with 16 rushing touchdowns during the regular season and failed to score a TD in only four of his 17 games, including last week’s playoff win. Henry has been peaking late in the season, getting gigantic touch volume recently as the Titans look to lean on Henry in their gameplan. Henry is averaging 33 touches per game over his last two games, seeing no less than 32 touches.
Henry was heavily featured in the red zone during the regular season and was tied for the lead in red zone TDs while ranking in the top five in red zone carries. While Baltimore had a strong red zone defense, their rush defense was below average by efficiency stats and they ranked towards the middle of the pack in rushing TDs allowed to running backs. Henry’s recent titanic touch volume, combined with his red zone usage and brute physical attributes, puts him in strong position to get into the end zone even if the 9-point underdog Titans fall behind by multiple scores.
A.J. Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans
While Henry is a strong bet to score a TD at some point in this game, the possibility exists that Baltimore could look to get Tennessee out of their run-heavy game plan by loading the box in an effort to slow Henry down. Brown, Tennessee’s best option in the passing game, could benefit if that happens. Brown caught eight touchdown passes during the regular season, which ranked in the top 10 among all receivers. Brown also possesses big-play upside that can make him a TD threat even when the Titans are not in a red zone situation. Brown’s longest reception this season was 91 yards, and he averaged roughly 20 yards per reception, second best among qualified WRs and almost double the 2019 league average of about 11 yards per reception. With Baltimore 9-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, Brown could see expanded target volume if the Titans fall behind by multiple scores.
Hayden Hurst, TE, Baltimore Ravens
With TE Mark Andrews (ankle) uncertain to play, Hurst could see expanded snaps in the event that Andrews is limited or unable to suit up. Even if Andrews does play, Hurst has displayed impressive speed and athleticism for a tight end, most notably breaking off a 61-yard TD in Week 14. Hurst reached a top speed of 20.5 mph on the touchdown reception, the seventh best top speed among all ball-carriers in Week 14, per the league’s player tracking system. Hurst saw respectable playing time during the regular season, playing on about 42% of Baltimore’s offensive plays.
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