Ravens vs. Titans matchup statistics for Divisional round

Now that we are in the playoffs, we can dig a little deeper into the defensive statistics for each playoff matchup. It is true that statistics can lie or at least obscure the truth we need to see, but on the whole, they can give us a decent idea how teams are attacked on average.

If a team gives up a ton of rushing yards, we can infer that their opponents have a reason to run against them. Maybe they just can’t stop the run or their pass defense is so good teams need to run or maybe game flow has them trailing more often than not and teams look to salt away the game on the ground. At this point in the season we can feel somewhat confident in what a team’s strengths and weaknesses are.

These stats should help us when we go to set our DFS lineups, especially the Showdown slate for this game. Below I have given us the statistics allowed for each position on the season and just below that, for the last eight games of the season for some context on how team defenses are doing more recently. I’ve also opened up the comments on these posts if you have any questions about the statistics.

For this post we’ll look at the Ravens and Titans.

The Ravens pass defense started out the season a bit iffy, but the acquisition of Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith getting healthy pushed them back up into being an elite group. Their 5.63 yards per attempt allowed in the second half of the season is by far the best number in the league. And only the Patriots have given up fewer touchdown passes.

The Titans haven’t been great against the pass and things got a little worse as injuries hit their secondary in the second half of the season. But on average, they’ve been average. Football Outsiders has them ranked 21st in DVOA against the pass and the Ravens ranked 4th. On the season, the Titans have allowed 10 quarterbacks to throw two or more touchdowns while the Ravens have allowed three quarterbacks to do the same.

The Ravens have been good against running backs, but not as good as they’ve been against receivers. They rank 19th in DVOA against the run while the Titans rank 10th. The DraftKings points allowed don’t jive with that ranking, but that also takes into account receiving numbers against running backs and the Ravens have shut those down, as they’ve allowed the fewest receptions, third-fewest yards and just one touchdown to receiving backs. On the ground, they rank 23rd in yards per carry allowed at 4.42.

The Titans have allowed fewer yards per carry and similar overall rushing numbers, but they’ve given up the most receptions in the league to the position to crank their DK points allowed number up into the awful range. The Ravens don’t throw the ball that often to their backs, but when they do, they make it count, so that could be detrimental in this matchup.

Teams are usually trailing the Ravens, so they are often forced to throw the ball directly into the teeth of Baltimore’s best defensive unit. On the season, they’ve seen the sixth-most pass attempts against them and the twelfth-most receptions. That shows up in their catch percentage allowed, which ranks fourth-best in the league.

The Titans were below average in almost every stat against wide receivers and the only good news for them is that the Ravens don’t throw to their wide receivers all that much. But if Marquise Brown gets even a handful of targets, his upside is great, as No. 1 receivers have smoked the Titans for much of the year.

When we look at how the fantasy points break down by where receivers line up, the Ravens don’t really have a glaring weakness, as they rank 13th or better at each pre-snap position while the Titans rank 19th or worse versus each. The Titans worst ranking comes against slot receivers, so keep Willie Snead in mind when betting those touchdown props.

The Ravens have been stout against tight ends this season. Since Week 5 on, they haven’t allowed a tight end to top 37 yards and that includes George Kittle who had two receptions for 17 yards. The Titans on the other hand, have given up big games to Jared Cook, Jack Doyle, Travis Kelce, Hunter Henry, and Austin Hooper. And they were unable to stop any tight end that is a real part of an offense. That bodes well for Mark Andrews as long as he’s healthy enough to play in full.