Betting on touchdown props on DraftKings Sportsbook is fun. That doesn’t always mean it is profitable, but for fantasy players that also gamble, prop bets are often right in our wheelhouse. We need to know what player might score a touchdown so we can get those fantasy points while betting the line has us take a larger view of the game.
When looking at the TD prop bets, you’ll usually see the running backs with the best odds, while we get the backups and secondary receivers as we go down the line. We know some ancillary player will likely get into the end zone, but who?
You can also bet on the first and last touchdown scored. We get much better odds on those, and even picking a goal-line back who sees a bunch of touches near the end zone can give you odds that are worth a wager. For example, Aaron Jones is the Packers’ most productive touchdown scorer, and you can get his odds at +475 to score the first touchdown of the game while his odds to score at any time during the game are -182. Marshawn Lynch is the most productive rushing scorer among Seattle’s healthy players, and can be had at +750 and +130, respectively, for those two categories.
Looking at recent usage and matchups, we’ll go through a few of my favorite touchdown wagers for this game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
First To Score a touchdown
Favorite: Aaron Jones (+475)
Sleeper: DK Metcalf (+1100)
Longshot: Geronimo Allison (+2500)
Favorite: Aaron Jones (-182)
Sleeper: Jimmy Graham (+285)
Longshot: Geronimo Allison (+425)
Aaron Jones, RB, Packers
Jones was tied for the NFL lead during the regular season in both total touchdowns (19) and rushing touchdowns (16) and led all players in this game in touches inside the red zone. Jones faces a Seahawks defense that allowed the third most rushing TDs to RBs during the regular season and ranked as a below average team in red zone defense, allowing TDs inside the red zone at a higher than average clip. Jones’ heavy touch volume near the end zone combined with Seattle’s deficiencies at preventing TDs to RBs gives him big scoring upside. Jones is a strong choice to score at some point in this game given the matchup and his red zone usage.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks
Metcalf is a monstrous physical specimen, and his 6’4”, 230 lb. frame gives him a lengthy and strong target to wrestle the ball away from smaller defensive backs in red zone situations. Metcalf has also developed as a receiver as the season has progressed. He has scored a TD in three of his last four games, including last week’s playoff win, and has played on over 90% of snaps in each of his last three games. Two of Metcalf’s three highest target volume games have come over his last two games, seeing nine targets in last week’s playoff game against the Eagles and 12 targets in a meaningful Week 17 game vs. the 49ers. Metcalf appears to be peaking heading into this matchup.
Geronimo Allison, WR, Packers
Allison was targeted on 11% of the Packers’ red zone passing attempts during the regular season, has a good sized frame at 6’3” and played on about 60% of the Packers’ offensive plays as the second WR opposite Davante Adams. These factors, combined with Seattle showcasing a below average red zone defense, could make Allison a longshot option to score in this game, especially if Seattle’s defense elects to focus their attention elsewhere.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Packers
Graham is also a betting option considering Seattle had a below average red zone defense and allowed TDs to tight ends at a higher than average clip. Graham saw 14% of the Packers’ targets inside the red zone, and while he is no longer anything near the touchdown machine that he was during his prime with the Saints, he is still a massive target for red zone situations, standing at 6’7”.
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