49ers vs. Vikings matchup statistics for Divisional round

Now that we are in the playoffs, we can dig a little deeper into the defensive statistics for each playoff matchup. It is true that statistics can lie or at least obscure the truth we need to see, but on the whole, they can give us a decent idea how teams are attacked on average.

If a team gives up a ton of rushing yards, we can infer that their opponents have a reason to run against them. Maybe they just can’t stop the run or their pass defense is so good teams need to run or maybe game flow has them trailing more often than not and teams look to salt away the game on the ground. At this point in the season we can feel somewhat confident in what a team’s strengths and weaknesses are.

These stats should help us when we go to set our DFS lineups, especially the Showdown slate for this game. Below I have given us the statistics allowed for each position on the season and just below that, for the last eight games of the season for some context on how team defenses are doing more recently. I’ve also opened up the comments on these posts if you have any questions about the statistics.

For this post we’ll look at the 49ers vs. Vikings.

Both of these teams rank in the Top 10 in DraftKings points allowed to quarterbacks but the 49ers have taken a nose-dive in that particular stat in the second half of the season, as they’ve dealt with some injuries and a gaggle of strong quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Jared Goff and Russell Wilson all put up two or more touchdowns against the 49ers over the last five games of the season. Football Outsiders has the 49ers ranked second in DVOA against the pass, so things probably aren’t as bad as these recent numbers indicate, but they haven’t been a shutdown pass defense of late.

The Vikings’ numbers likely don’t meet their recent play either, as they are hurting at cornerback and their start cornerback, Xavier Rhodes, has been one of the worst in the league according to Pro Football Focus grading. Facing Mitch Trubisky twice, Matt Moore instead of Patrick Mahomes, David Blough instead of Matt Stafford, Brandon Allen, Case Keenum, Daniel Jones and a past his prime Phillip Rivers has helped their passing defense stats. They rank seventh in DVOA against the pass, but that can be skewed by poor quarterbacks as well. When we look at their stats against wide receivers, we’ll get a better look at how their secondary has been playing.

The Vikings have a strong run defense in theory but they’ve been getting gashed with regularity of late. They’ve given up nine touchdowns to running backs over their last nine games, including four in their last three. Their 4.64 yards per carry allowed in those nine games is also below average. The 49ers on the other hand haven’t been as giving to running backs, with seven total rushing touchdowns and no receiving touchdowns allowed. They aren’t going to shut Dalvin Cook out, as he put up good numbers against a tough Saints run defense, but they have shown to be better than the Vikings this season and if they get Kwon Alexander back this week, his presence would be a big boost.

The 49ers and Vikings both can be touched up for big stats by wide receivers, but the Vikings have been worse in that regard, especially against outside receivers, as you’ll see below. The 49ers have dipped after a strong start but Julio Jones and Michael Thomas were the main contributors to their rough patch. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs will still be a test for this unit though.

The Vikings rank 31st at fantasy points allowed to outside receivers while the 49ers rank 11th. Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders get strong matchups this week while Thielen and Diggs should have a rougher time.

The Vikings have been strong defensively to the middle of the field as Anthony Harris and Mackensie Alexander have been their best defensive backs from the slot and at safety. Unfortunately for the Vikings, Alexander is out this week, which could help Kendrick Bourne, but Harris should still see enough of George Kittle and Harris has been outstanding this season. The Vikings rank first in DVOA against tight ends and have allowed just one touchdown to them all season. The loss of Alexander hurts, but I still think we need to lower our expectations for Kittle a smidgen.