Betting on touchdown props is fun. That doesn’t always mean it is profitable but for fantasy players that also gamble, prop bets are often right in our wheelhouse. We need to know what player might score a touchdown so we can get those fantasy points while betting the line has us take a larger view of the game.
When you look at the TD prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook you’ll usually see the running backs with the best odds while we get the backups and secondary receivers as we go down the line. We know some ancillary player will likely get into the end zone, but who?
You can also bet on the first and last touchdown scored. We get much better odds on those, and even picking a goal-line back who sees a bunch of touches near the end zone can give you odds that are worth a wager. Example being, Raheem Mostert and Dalvin Cook are their respective teams’ most productive touchdown scorers and you can get their odds at +750 and +650 to score the first touchdown of the game while their odds to score at any time during the game are +115 and -106 respectively.
Looking at recent usage and matchups, we’ll go through a few of my favorite touchdown wagers for this game:
Raheem Mostert, RB, 49ers
(Anytime +115, First +750, Last +750)
Mostert has been a touchdown machine since getting more touches starting in Week 12. He has at least one touchdown in every game and eight total in those six games. They also didn’t all come against poor defenses, as he did it against the Rams, Saints and Ravens. That’s a streak I can get behind for +750 on the first or last touchdown and +115 on any touchdown.
The Vikings run defense isn’t quite as great as their reputation, as they’ve allowed seven rushing touchdowns in their last seven games and four receiving touchdowns on the season, both of which are in Mostert’s purview.
Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings
(Anytime -106, First +650, Last +650)
Cook looked awesome against the Saints last week, especially early on and found the end zone twice. He was hurting at the end of the season but he looked fully healthy last weekend. Cook hasn’t scored a touchdown in only three of the 15 games he’s played in this season and leads the league in rushing attempts inside the opponent’s five-yard line despite missing two games.
The trouble for Cook is a 49ers defense that has given up just seven rushing touchdowns to running backs and none through the air. The good news is that they’ve given up four in their last three games, with all three being high leverage affairs. Cook’s usage is the best in the league and that’s why his touchdown odds aren’t going to give you a big payday at -106 for an anytime touchdown, but at +650 for a first and a last, there is room to have him in your touchdown prop plans.
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers
(Anytime +160, First +1000, Last +1000)
George Kittle is at +115 to score an anytime touchdown but is going against a Vikings defense that has allowed just one touchdown to a tight end and Kittle has just five touchdowns on the season. He’s of course a prime candidate to score but at his odds and matchup, I’d rather look elsewhere. And that elsewhere is Samuel. who has rushed for a touchdown in each of his last two games. Samuel also leads all the receivers, including Kittle, with 20 looks inside the red zone. I’ll take Samuel’s odds over Kittle without blinking an eye.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings
(Anytime +250, First +1400, Last +1400)
The 49ers have given up 18 receiving touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns to receivers over their last eight games. Only Washington and Miami have given up more in that span. That puts all the Vikings wide receivers in the market for a touchdown, but right now I am leaning Diggs due to Adam Thielen’s cut on his ankle and subsequent missed practices. He will likely play, but I like Diggs as it is and he has good odds.
Long shots I like to find the end zone
Tevin Coleman, RB, 49ers
(Anytime +275, First +1600, Last +1600)
Coleman has taken a back seat to Raheem Mostert but he’s still ahead of Matt Breida and seeing some work in the red zone.
Kyle Juszczyk, FB, 49ers
(Anytime +325, First +2000, Last +2000)
Juszczyk has six targets and one rushing attempts in the red zone since Week 11. He hasn’t found the end zone this season, but he has a lot of ability for a fullback and gets enough touches to have a shot at a score.
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