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Betting, fantasy implications of Antonio Brown signing with Patriots

Antonio Brown forced his way out of Oakland and has now signed with the New England Patriots. We break down what it could mean for fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting.

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown smiles on the sidelines during the first quarter at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

Editor’s update: DraftKings Sportsbook released updated odds related to both Antonio Brown and the New England Patriots. The first table below features changes in Browns’ odds. The second table features changes in the Patriots odds.

Antonio Brown odds post-Patriots signing

Market Pre-Release from Raiders Post-Signing with Patriots
Market Pre-Release from Raiders Post-Signing with Patriots
NFL MVP 10000 20000
Receptions Leader 2000 1000
Receiving Yards Leader 2000 800
Receiving TD Leader 3000 1200
Offensive PoY 6600 2500

Patriots odds after signing Antonio Brown

Market Pre-AB Signing Current
Market Pre-AB Signing Current
To win Super Bowl 700 500
To win AFC 300 200
To win AFC East -625 -715
To Make the Playoffs -1250 -1430
To Miss the Playoffs 700 750

Whatever your thoughts of Antonio Brown prior to Saturday afternoon, he’s kind of looking like a genius. The star wide receiver forced his way out of Oakland with a variety of antics, and has now signed with the New England Patriots, according to multiple reports. Reports have him signing a one-year deal worth $15 million, with a signing bonus of $9 million.

Brown had forced a trade from Pittsburgh over the offseason, and seemed ready to settle in with Jon Gruden and the Raiders. However, a helmet controversy followed by fines and a back-and-forth that is hard to fully understand, Antonio Brown asked for and received his release on Saturday.

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It was less than four hours before Bill Belichick swooped in and signed one of arguably the five best receivers in the game. He joins Tom Brady and gives the future Hall of Fame quarterback the best receiver he has had since Randy Moss. Considering how Moss forced his own way out of Oakland, it’s kind of crazy what’s going on with this situation.

Fantasy football implications: Season-long, this is unbelievable. Tom Brady’s value shoots up with Brown joining Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, and Demaryius Thomas in the wide receiver corps. Edelman remains a great PPR option, but it will be interesting to see what Brown means for Gordon and Thomas as the season progresses.

I don’t think it will take long for Brown to get acclimated with Brady, but these first few weeks are tough to predict. Brown is a dominant player, but there are a lot of mouths to feed on the Patriots depth chart. I suspect he still is a WR1, but it might be closer to top 10 or 15 than top five.

DFS implications: I doubt we see Brown on the field Sunday night against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but he’s sure to be suited up a week from now when the Patriots travel to face the Miami Dolphins. He’ll only a week of practice and playbook preparation, so you’ll have to decide if Brown’s high price is worth it. I’d hold off on him in DFS for the time-being, but we’ll see what this week brings.

Betting implications: The Patriots Super Bowl odds dropped from +700 to +500 after word of the signing. This might be the best receiver corps Tom Brady has ever had, so it’s no surprise they are now sizable favorites to win the Super Bowl. The closest team is the Kansas City Chiefs at +850.

Meanwhile, the point spread for the Patriots opener has not changed given that Brown is unlikely to play on Sunday. A receiver is not usually worth a lot in a point spread, but Brown is likely to get people betting heavy on the Patriots next week against the Dolphins. The public likely is already betting a decent amount on them against Miami, so it might end up not making a big difference for the line.

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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is FoochNN) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.