Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers are the worst QB value in Week 1 DFS

With real, actual football mere days away, it’s time to start getting ready for the daily fantasy football season. Whether you’re an avid player or just dipping your toe into daily fantasy for the first time, it stands to reason that spending a large portion of your weekly budget on one player, only to have him underproduce can single-handedly sink your lineup. I’m here to make sure that that won’t happen for you.

It’s Week 1 of football so it’s hard to predict exactly what will happen, but here are three quarterbacks who I’m confidently not buying this week at their current price. (Salaries courtesy of DraftKings.)

Patrick Mahomes (KC) — $7,200

It may sound crazy not to spend everything and anything to get Mahomes into your lineup but I’m not sold he’s going to perform as the best quarterback on DraftKings this coming week. He faces the Jacksonville Jaguars in Jacksonville which is a tall task for any offense, even the best offense in football. The Jaguars allowed the 10th fewest points to opposing quarterbacks last year and the second fewest passing touchdowns. Last year, the Jaguars were the only defense to hold Mahomes without a passing touchdown and they picked him off twice. There are plenty of other quarterbacks I’d rather have to start my DFS season than Mahomes.

Aaron Rodgers (GB) — $6,500

I’m sure many fantasy football and Packers fans are hoping that Rodgers will be reinvigorated in Matt LaFleur’s new offense and return to the fantasy God he once was. While I’m fairly certain that will happen at some point this season, I’m not sold that it’s going to happen right out of the gate against the best defense in the NFL. The Bears were dominate last year against the pass and though I doubt they’ll repeat their 21 total interceptions, they have plenty of playmakers in their secondary to limit Rodgers’ total output. As the fourth most expensive QB this week, I’m spending my money elsewhere.

Jameis Winston (TB) — $6,600

It’s not that I hate the Buccaneers’ Week 1 matchup — they play a San Francisco 49ers team that surrendered the most passing touchdowns last year — or that I hate the offense Winston is playing in (Bruce Arians is about to turn water into wine people). I’ve included Winston on this list because for the life of me I can’t understand why he’s the third most expensive quarterback this week. THE THIRD. Only Mahomes and Deshaun Watson cost more than Winston. When was the last time you felt confident in playing Jameis Winston in fantasy? My answer: never. Sure he might have a good game to open the season, but with guys like Philip Rivers, Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz all under the $6,000 mark, I’m not committing that much of my budget to Winston. Sorry.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is petermcdrogers) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.