The goal of this article will be to examine betting angles for this week’s NFL matchups. So not only will we identify potential spots to target, but also spots that could be traps, or just to stay away from all together. Here are some plays on the DK Sportsbook that standout:
Spot Worth Targeting: Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
The undefeated Patriots travel to Buffalo to face the undefeated Bills, but don’t get to carried away with this one. Neither team has faced any real competition thus far, but while the Bills squeaked by the Jets, Giants and Bengals, the Patriots have throttled the competition.
The Pats have scored at least 30 points in every game this season, and the defense has still given up a grand total of three points (the Jets got 14 points on special teams and on defense against a backup QB). Tom Brady is 30-3 against the Bills in his career, and the Patriots at 14-4-1 ATS in Buffalo during the Belichick era. I like the Patriots to cover, the moneyline as a parlay piece, and the Buffalo team total to land under 16.5 as plus-money.
The play: NE -7
Trap Spot: Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers
This spread opened with the Chargers -16, and touched 16.5 at times, which means a lot of money has come in on the Dolphins this week. Some of it we can explain, as Justin Jackson and Mike Williams have been ruled out with injuries. The Jackson injury actually means we might see Melvin Gordon forced into action behind Austin Ekeler, but to be clear, Gordon’s not worth any points to the spread, and is defiantly not a trustworthy fantasy option.
Miami’s 0-3 ATS this season, failing to cover by about 23 points per game. Why the Dolphins are getting backed is beyond be, and they’ll be facing a Chargers squad that’s hungry for a win after consecutive losses. The Chargers are also great on the road, which should help here. I’d love to get -14 if it keeps moving, but for now I’m focused on the under on Miami’s team total. This team’s averaging 5.33 points per game, and is impossible to trust on offense.
The trap: MIA +14.5
Potential play: MIA TT U14
Stay Away Spot: Atlanta Falcons vs. Tennessee Titans
I can’t get a feel for this game, and that means I’m staying away from both sides. The Titans opened at +4 or even +5 in some spots, and currently sit at +3.5. There are two ways to look at this game, which features a pair of teams that haven’t been good ATS this season at 1-2.
The Falcons failed to cover in Indy last week, which moved them to 0-12 ATS in their last 12 games against the AFC. Now they have another AFC game right in front of them, but it’s against a terrible Tennessee team in their own house. I can’t back a Titans defense that feels overrated, or an offense led by Marcus Mariota — who’s easily a bottom five QB in the NFL. It would take huge injury news and/or line movement to get me anywhere near this game.
Stay away: From spread and total
Potential play: None
Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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