Now that we’re three weeks into the NFL season, we’re starting to learn which teams are for real, both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. The 12-game Week 4 main slate on DraftKings is starting to take that into consideration, making it more difficult to find value. However, there are still some under/over priced D/ST units that we can take advantage of in Week 4.
Here are my top-three D/ST plays on DK:
Rams D/ST — ($3,500) vs. TB
I love this spot for the Rams D/ST, returning home against an inconsistent Tampa offense. This has been a very consistent unit, forcing at least one turnover and getting at least two sacks in all three games this season. The Rams have also allowed a total of just 22 points in the last two games, scoring at least 8.0 DKFP in every game.
It held the Browns to just 13 points on the road on SNF last week, getting an INT and three sacks for 9.0 DKFP. Now the Rams will face an even worse Bucs offensive line, and have the luxury of playing at home. I expect the defensive line to dominate this game, forcing Jameis Winston into plenty of sacks and turnover opportunities.
Patriots D/ST — ($3,700) @ BUF
The Patriots’ offense gets all the hype, but this defense could be the best in the league. Buffalo’s off to a hot 3-0 start, but let’s keep in mind that those wins came over the Jets, Giants and Bengals, but still averages just 22 points per game.
The two touchdowns the Jets managed to (surprisingly) score against New England last week came on a muffed punt, and a pick-six of rookie QB Jarrertt Stidham. This defense still hasn’t given up a touchdown since the AFC Championship game in Kansas City, and has allowed just three points on the season. Averaging a whopping 19.3 DKFP through three games, it’s tough to imagine the Bills’ offense having any success in this one.
Panthers D/ST — ($2,300) @ HOU
This one’s a little more off the radar. The Chargers D/ST ($3,800) is an obvious play, with the laughable Dolphins’ offense mustering up 16 total points on the season. But if we’re digging into the bargain bin, this sets up as a solid spot for the Panthers D/ST.
Carolina looked fantastic on the road last week, racking up eight sacks in Arizona, on the way to 13 DKFP. Houston has one of the worst offensive lines in football, as Deshaun Watson’s consistently one of the most sacked QBs in football. The sack upside here alone justifies the price tag at just $2,300 in tournaments. In cash you’ll want to consider paying up for the options above.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.