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Betting on Aaron Rodgers breakout in Week 3 TNF

The Packers and Eagles square off on Thursday Night Football. I’ve got a pick against the spread in which I’m siding with an Aaron Rodgers breakout game.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers talks with Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur during a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs at Lambeau Field on August 29, 2019 in Green Bay, WI. Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Philadelphia Eagles travel to Lambeau on Thursday Night Football to face the Green Bay Packers in the Week 4 opening matchup. The Packers are undefeated, with three wins coming against talented defenses in Chicago, Minnesota, and Denver. The Eagles are 1-2, and have lost two straight to Atlanta and Detroit since a season-opening win against Washington.

The Packers are a four-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook — a line that has come down only half a point from the initial 4.5. The point total sits at 46.5. The Packers are 3-0 against the spread, with a +23 point differential, and +16 when factoring in the point spread. They’ve gone under the point total in two of their three games this season. The Eagles are winless against the spread, with a -2 point differential, but -19 when factoring in the point spread. They’ve gone over the point spread in two of their three games this season.

The betting public has been heavily behind the Packers, with 76 percent of handle and 63 percent of tickets bet on the Packers as of Wednesday morning. I am not a fan of following the betting public, but this is a tough matchup to ignore. Carson Wentz gets Alshon Jeffery back, but will remain without DeSean Jackson. They face a tougher defense than they’ve seen in their two losses to Atlanta and Detroit. The Packers offense has been slow going, but they face a 22nd-ranked Eagles defense that might provide the Matt LaFleur offense some room for growth.

I’m going to lay the points with Green Bay for tonight. Jeffery might be playing, but he’s likely not 100 percent on the short week. The Eagles are facing a step up in defense and I think they’ll scuffle under the lights. I’m inclined to take the over as I think we see a breakout offensive performance from the Packers.

Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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