An early look at the opening point spreads of Week 4

Are the Colts, Saints and Panthers still good teams without their franchise quarterbacks? Have the Giants found theirs in Daniel Jones? Are the Browns still just the Browns after all the hype? Week 3 featured some very interesting storylines, and the 2019-20 season hasn’t disappointed us in the surprises department. As one week fades, the next comes into focus. Heading into Week 4, eight teams remain undefeated: five in the NFC and three in the AFC. Four of those teams will face off next week, so it’s likely a couple more will add a number to the loss column.

The betting odds may change as each game approaches its kickoff time. When that time is near, we’ll break down each matchup in more detail. In the meantime, here are a couple of the games that I have my eyes on as Week 4 lines open.

Typically, I’ve been focusing on the high-powered offensive games. This week, the opposite is grabbing my attention. The Jacksonville Jaguars came up with a Thursday night divisional win against the Tennessee Titans in Week 3, avoiding an 0-3 start, something that their Week 4 opponents couldn’t do. Now, with nearly a week and a half of rest, the Jags will head the Denver to take on Joe Flacco and the Broncos. This matchup is opening as the lowest point total of the week, which is equal parts a compliment to the defenses and an insult to the offenses. The intriguing bit is that the Broncos are starting off as 3-point favorites. Yes, they’re at home, but they haven’t given us any reason to believe that carries any weight. Meanwhile, Gardner Minshew has burst onto the scene, giving Jacksonville a much needed energy boost. And though the AFC West is yet again being claimed by the Chiefs, the AFC South is up for grabs. My initial pick here is to take the Jaguars to win, but I’ll be peeking at the spread as the week progresses.

I’m highlighting a Patriots game again this week. That’s not because I’m a New Englander. I just think there’s a lot to unpack from this matchup between two of the league’s seven 3-0 teams. Up until Week 3, the Patriots hadn’t allowed a touchdown. They gave up two to the Jets: a fumble recovery on a muffed punt and a pick six from Jarrett Stidham’s arm (Tom Brady’s backup.) So, as far as the defense is concerned, they still haven’t allowed a touchdown. While the Bills aren’t what we’d consider Super Bowl contenders, they’ll provide the Patriots with their first real challenge of the season. Historically, Tom Brady hasn’t had an issue handling the Bills, as he is 30-3 against them in his career. He’s been surgical through three games this season, and I would never doubt TB12. But seeing a home team that’s 3-0 open up as 7.5-point underdogs is a bit unsettling. In the last five games against each AFC East opponents (15 games total,) the Patriots wouldn’t have covered a -7.5-point spread only twice, and those came as losses against the Dolphins. Unless this line drastically changes, I’m taking the Pats.

The odds have yet to be released for the Browns/Ravens, Buccaneers/Rams and Bengals/Steelers games.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Thursday Night

Eagles (+4.5) at Packers

Sunday, 1pm ET

Washington (+3) at Giants
Raiders (+7) at Colts
Patriots at Bills (+7.5)
Chiefs at Lions (+6.5)
Titans (+5) at Falcons
Chargers at Dolphins (+16.5)
Panthers (+4) at Texans

Sunday, 4pm ET

Seahawks at Cardinals (+4)
Vikings (+2.5) at Bears
Jaguars (+3) at Broncos

Sunday Night

Cowboys at Saints (+3)

Bye Week Teams: Jets, 49ers