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Best bets for Week 3 of the 2019 NFL season

We break down a spot to target, a potential trap, and a game to stay away from in Week 3.

Kenny Golladay of the Detroit Lions celebrates a second half touchdown with Matthew Stafford #9 while playing the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field on October 7, 2018 in Detroit, Michigan. Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

The goal of this article will be to examine betting angles for this week’s NFL matchups. So not only will we identify potential spots to target, but also spots that could be traps, or just to stay away from all together. Here are some plays on the DraftKings Sportsbook that standout:

Spot Worth Targeting: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Detroit Lions

If there’s anyway to buy the half-point and get this to seven, I love having a touchdown to work with, but this spread is moving, and I like it at +6 or better. This spread is just way off from what we’ve seen so far this season, as Philly struggled to get past Washington before losing in Atlanta, while Detroit letdown a bit in a tie in Arizona, but defeated a really good Chargers squad in Week 2.

The Eagles are already banged up on defense, and sustained injuries to two crucial pass-catchers early in the loss to the Falcons. DeSean Jackson (abdomen) has already been ruled out, while Alshon Jeffery (calf) has a questionable tag. We’ll see how the Eagles handle Jeffery, but they may be inclined to sit him, with a TNF matchup against the Packers on deck for Week 4. This is a classic look ahead spot for a banged up team, but the spread is treating Philly like the class of the NFL.

The Lions have looked great lately, and this defense should be able to handle a diminished Eagles offense. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles’ secondary has looked bad this season. WR1s have long torched them, including Julio Jones going for over 100 yards and two touchdowns last week. Kenny Golladay should be able to put up a big game, and keep the Lions firmly in this one. I don’t hate taking a small stab at the moneyline, but I’ll gladly take the points.

The play: DET +6.5

Trap Spot: San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

We’ve got the 2-0 49ers hosting the 0-2 Steelers, who will be without Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) for the rest of the season. I get why this spread is so big, but the initial read on this line was a pick ‘em, and I think we’re overreacting to a lot of different things in this game.

While the 49ers’ 2-0 start on the road is impressive, it was against the Bucs and Bengals. This is by far their toughest test of the season, yet after two pick ‘em games, San Fran is now a big favorite.

Most importantly, I’m not sure the move from Big Ben to Mason Rudolph makes Pittsburgh any worse. It does from the QB we’re used to seeing, but from the injured Ben we saw this season, Rudolph will be an upgrade. The Steelers’ losses came in New England, and then to Seattle in a game they had to switch QBs, and James Conner went down — and still lost by just two. Minkah Fitzpatrick should also be available to play in this game, helping out the secondary where he can.

If this spread goes back to where it opened, I think backing the Steelers plus a touchdown makes a lot of sense.

The trap: SF -6.5

Potential play: PIT +7

Stay Away Spot: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans

The Chargers challenged the Chiefs for the AFC West last season, and I think they’re the better team here. However, the Chargers are also constantly one of the slowest teams out of the gate, and difficult to trust in September. While Houston struggled with the Jags in Week 2, it lost by one on the road against Drew Brees and the Saints in Week 1, almost stealing that game.

The Chargers also have the worst home field advantage in the NFL, so we can always take advantage of these lines in some way. The three points they’re receiving for being at home can be tossed out, as this is practically a neutral field — where this game would be a pick ‘em.

Even dating back to San Diego, the Chargers are just 11-21 ATS in home games since 2015. I also can’t back the Texans after the lackluster performance they showed us at home against Jacksonville. This offensive line and secondary can’t be trusted, which means I’m leaving this game alone. But both of these teams combined to score 23 points last week, so it feels like it could be an under spot if you want a play.

Stay away: LAC -3/HOU+3

Potential play: UNDER 49

Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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