Editor’s update: The Patriots won in Week 3 with relative ease, but it was a train wreck if you wagered on New England. The Patriots were rolling, taking a 30-0 lead midway through the third quarter. The Patriots were never really threatened the rest of the way, but the Jets offered signs of life over the final quarter and a half. Arthur Maulet recovered a fumble in the end zone for a touchdown, and then Jamal Adams secured an interception and ran it back 61 yards for a touchdown.
What is noteworthy is the Patriots had replaced Brady with Jarrett Stidham given the big lead. The Adams pick-six came against Stidham. The Patriots actually went back to Brady after the lead was cut to 30-14. The Patriots had a chance with the ball late, but they were not overly concerned with scoring, and ran down enough clock to secure the win. It was a relatively easy win for New England, but a hear-breaking loss for Patriots bettors.
Okay, let’s be clear from the start. The New England Patriots are going to beat the New York Jets this weekend. The question is by how many points? With the biggest point spread of the season, the Jets are getting 20.5 points against a team that they’ve lost to in three consecutive games by an average of 23 points. To make matters worse, New York is resorting to its third-string quarterback, Luke Falk (DFS salary $4,600,) after losing Sam Darnold (mono) and Trevor Siemian (ankle.) Oh, and they’re playing in New England, where the Patriots currently have an eight-game winning streak going against the Jets.
So, all signs point to a 3-0 start for New England and a 0-3 start for New York. That doesn’t mean we won’t have any action, though. The Patriots have outscored their opponents 76-3 this season, indicating that a blowout won’t make them ease up on the gas pedal. For Pats fans, this is reminiscent of the 2007-08 regular season, in which they demolished nearly every opponent. With Antonio Brown released on Friday, Julian Edelman ($6,300) and Josh Gordon ($5,400) will see increased attention from Tom Brady ($6,600.) But who knows? Maybe we’ll watch Phillip Dorsett ($3,400) put another two-touchdown game on his resume.
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The one bright spot in the Jets’ offense was and will continue to be Le’Veon Bell ($7,000.) He’s averaging 110.5 total yards through his first two games as a Jet, and his career numbers against New England (151 total yards per game) are encouraging. Granted, those stats were accumulated during his time with a much better Steelers team, but we could still see something similar. Luke Falk will undoubtedly be relying on Le’Veon for quick passes, and Bell’s good enough to make something out of nothing. I don’t think he’ll come close to 151 total yards, but he could break 100. Regardless, the Patriots will cover the massive spread and Sony Michel will start the scoring off for his second touchdown of the season.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Jets at Patriots
Point Spread: Jets +20.5
Total Points: 42.5
Money Line: Jets +1300; Patriots -2000
Overall 2018 (2019): Jets 4-12 (0-2); Patriots 14-5 (2-0)
ATS 2018 (2019): Jets 5-11 (0-2); Patriots 12-7 (2-0)
O/U 2018 (2019): Jets 10-6 (0-2); Patriots 7-12 (0-2)
Notable Prop Bets
- Luke Falk to throw under 0.5 pass TDs: +138
- Le’Veon Bell over 5.5 receptions: -106
- Sony Michel to score 1st TD and team to win: +650
- Julian Edelman over 5.5 receptions: -150
- The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last six games.
- Seven of the Patriots’ last eight day games at Gillette Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
- In five of the last six games between the Jets and Patriots, the highest scoring quarter has been the second.
- Sony Michel has scored the first touchdown in four of the Patriots’ last five games.
- Julian Edelman has scored a touchdown in four of the Patriots’ last five games against AFC East opponents.
- James White has scored at least one touchdown in eight of the Patriots’ last 12 games at Gillette Stadium.
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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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