I’d much rather pay down for defenses when I can, but if paying up works for your DraftKings lineup construction this week, we have three home teams in good spots against first time NFL starters.
Packers ($4,000) vs. Washington
The Packers are two-touchdown favorites over Washington, which is one of the things I look closely at when evaluating D/ST’s. If a team can get a big lead, their opponent is forced to drop back and throw consistently, giving the defense an advantage since they don’t need to worry about the run. Add in a rookie quarterback and cold weather for good measure.
The same concept for the Packers goes with the Vikings, as they are two-touchdown favorites at home against the Lions and David Blough. Minnesota’s run defense is their strength, so it will be tough for the Lions to slow down and control the game on the ground, and they will give up plenty of points to a good Vikings offense. Even against a weak Vikings pass defense, I don’t see Blough consistently beating them, and the more times he drops back, the more chances he has for turnovers and the always coveted pick-six.
The Texans are favored by nine points over rookie Drew Lock at home. Lock did well with two touchdown passes to Courtland Sutton at home in his first game, but after the first quarter, he was useless. Now he goes on the road to take on a team that leads their division and has aspirations to go deep in the playoffs.
I am an avid fan and user (my username is cogresha) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.