Using a running back against the Chiefs can be a frustrating endeavor. On the surface, it almost seems like a can’t fail proposition. Kansas City is surrendering a robust 5.0 yards per carry to opposing RBs so far this season, while the 4.86 adjusted line yards the team allows per rushing attempt is good for the third-worst mark in all of football. However, as we’ve seen in recent matchups, it’s more important to consider game script in these situations than it is to get excited about the Chiefs’ perceived weaknesses. To wit, due to Kansas City’s NFL-high 19.3 average scoring margin since the beginning of Week 13, teams playing the Chiefs have only been able to muster a paltry 35.2% rush rate within this span. It’s nice to produce five yards per carry, but that doesn’t mean a whole lot for fantasy if you’re limited to eight attempts.
This is the main worry I have in trusting someone like David Montgomery, who hasn’t exactly been the most consistent asset in 2019, anyway. To be honest, Montgomery’s just been flat out inefficient dating all the way back to Week 10. In that stretch of time, 27 different running backs have amassed at least 60 carries and, among that group, none has produced fewer PPR points per touch than Montgomery (0.48). That really shouldn’t be all that shocking a revelation, either. Montgomery’s had a reasonably high volume share within Chicago’s offensive system, yet he’s averaged a mere 1.3 targets per game and 3.3 yards per rush, while only finding the end zone on a single occasion. Quite simply, the rookie hasn’t been good.
Fantasy Football Analysis, Chicago Bears RBs David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen
Despite his severely underwhelming results, you’re likely going to be in a situation where Montgomery’s workload is still more appealing than most other prospective FLEX options. However, I did want to make the point that Tarik Cohen is the better play between the two Bears’ RBs. Over Chicago’s past five contests, Cohen’s racked up 11.4 touches and 7.0 targets per game, seeing more than 50% of the Bears’ offensive snaps in four matchups. Cohen should once again be a vital aspect of Chicago’s game plan, as Kansas City has conceded a league-high 117 targets to opposing backfields through 15 weeks of action. He’s a high floor play in a PPR setting.
Sit Montgomery. Start Cohen.