As with most decisions that need to be made prior to setting a lineup for Championship Week, my general advice would be to not overthink things. A good example of this is the matchup between Tyreek Hill and the Bears’ secondary. Does Chicago have a formidable passing defense? You’d better believe it does. Coming into this weekend’s slate, the Bears own the NFL’s seventh-best pass defense according to DVOA. That metric is backed up by the fact that Chicago has also surrendered the seventh-fewest pass plays of over 20 yards this season and the ninth-fewest yards per target to opposing wide receivers (7.6). However, I’m going to go out on a limb and say you still want to start Hill in all formats, as the speedy WR has generated more PPR fantasy points per route than any other wideout in all of football (0.65). Again, keep things as simple as possible.
At the same time, you don’t want to fall into the trap of completely selling out for upside. Kansas City is one of four teams averaging more than 28 points per game so far in 2019. The Chiefs also employ the reigning NFL MVP in Patrick Mahomes. Conceivably, you’d want to get as much exposure to their offense as physically possible, maybe even get a piece of a player that produced an insane 46.8 PPR points back in Week 1. I mean, how could you ignore such ceiling? How could you pass over a potential slate-breaker? Well, when it comes to Sammy Watkins, it’s actually pretty easy. Watkins has done nothing since that three-touchdown showing versus the Jaguars back in September. Absolutely nothing. Among the 74 wide receivers that have played at least 50% of their team’s snaps dating back to Week 2, only Zay Jones, Jarius Wright and Mohamed Sanu have posted fewer PPR points per touch than Watkins (2.03). Don’t get sucked in by the logo that happens to be on his helmet.
Fantasy Football Analysis, Kansas City Chiefs WRs Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins
For as stout as the Bears have been against WRs, the past three contests have been a bit of a different story. After having allowed only two individual 100-yard receiving performances entering play in Week 13, Chicago’s conceded the feat to Kenny Golladay, Michael Gallup and Davante Adams in back-to-back-to-back games. There’s no reason to believe that streak will come to an end with Hill taking the field against the Bears on Sunday Night Football.
Start Hill. Sit Watkins.