The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles square off in arguably the biggest game of Week 16. If Dallas wins, they clinch the NFC East and the Eagles season is finished. If Philadelphia wins, they move into a tie with the Cowboys and we start moving down the tiebreaker order. One of these teams is going to the playoffs and one of these teams will be going home in January.
The Cowboys opened as a 2.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, but we’ve seen important line movement in this one. A sizable majority of the point spread handle is on the Cowboys, but Friday morning the line dropped to Cowboys -1.5. Sharp money is coming in on Philadelphia and it might be because....
Dak Prescott showed up as a limited participant in practice on Wednesday and Thursday, marking the first time that has happened in his career. He’s dealing with a right shoulder injury, and we’re extensively out of Dallas that he has not been able to get throwing in, and that while he will play, the shoulder is a concern.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have big questions surrounding Derek Barnett and Lane Johnson. Both sat out Wednesday and Thursday, and while both have a chance of playing, their injuries are concerning.
Pick Against The Spread
This is a tough one. Is Dak going to be severely hindered with the shoulder injury? He says the shoulder is getting better and he’ll be good to go on Sunday. We know he’ll likely take pain killers in order to play. But how much will any of that matter?
If you think Dak is limited, it’s reasonable to take the Eagles even down to +1.5. Dallas is the better team, but Prescott has been a big part of this offense. Ezekiel Elliott is the engine that makes this team go, but he faces an Eagles defensive front that ranks third in adjusted line yards. They’re likely to stack the box against Zeke and dare Prescott to beat them with his injured shoulder.
While it’s possible the Cowboys are BS’ing us and setting up the Eagles, it’s not enough to hope that’s the case and lay the points. If Prescott was healthy, I’d be laying the points this weekend, but I just can’t do it with Prescott dealing with that shoulder injury.
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