Two months ago, if you had told someone the Bills-Browns matchup would feature a 6-2 team and a 2-6 team, most probably would have guessed the Browns were the ones on a playoff-bound track. Those preseason expectations are still relevant because they speak to the baseline talent levels of these two teams, which is much closer than their four-game gap in the standings might imply. It’s also a large part of why the Browns are favored, despite their inferior record and disappointing series of self-inflicted wounds.

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For the Browns to get their season back on track, they’ll need to fix those mistakes. They lead the NFL in penalties and are third in lost turnovers, despite that roughly half the league has played more games. If they can limit those errors, this is a favorable matchup for them. The Bills have a great pass defense, but they have been awful against the run. Nick Chubb is second in rush yards per game and fifth in yards per carry, and the Browns get Kareem Hunt back from suspension and injury for this game.

The Bills are one of the most run-heavy offenses, attempting a run on 45% of their snaps, and boasting the seventh best rushing game per DVOA. This game already has the lowest over-under in Week 10, but the likelihood of both teams focusing on their ground game makes the under an intriguing proposition.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Bills at Browns

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Bills +3
Total Points: 40
Money Line: Browns -148; Bills +128

Records

Overall: Bills 6-2; Browns 2-6
ATS: Bills 5-3; Browns 2-6
O/U: Bills 2-6; Browns 4-4

Key Injuries

• Bills’ RB Frank Gore will play. He missed Thursday’s practice, but not due to injury.
• Browns’ TE Ricky Seals-Jones (knee) is questionable after missing practice all week.

Notable Prop Bets

Bills:

Bills to score first and win +270; Total touchdowns (both teams combined) under 4.5 -157

Browns:

Baker Mayfield to throw more passing yards than Josh Allen -143; Parlay money line and under +205

Betting Trends

• The Browns have lost each of their last three Sunday games as favorites.
• The Browns have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 16 games in November.
• Nine of the Bills’ last 10 road games have gone under the total points line.
• Cole Beasley has scored a touchdown in each of the Bills’ last three games.
• Kareem Hunt has scored at least one touchdown in nine of his last 10 appearances.
• Devin Singletary has scored a touchdown in three of his last four appearances.

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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for details.