Betting against Kirk Cousins in Week 10

The Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings square off in Week 10, closing out Sunday with a prime time matchup that offers a potential playoff preview. The Cowboys lead the NFC East with a 5-3 record, while the Vikings sit a game back of the Packers with a 6-3 record.

It’s a tight matchup between the two, so it’s no surprise the Cowboys are mere field goal favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. The home team gets somewhere around 2.5 or three points in most point spreads. It can vary depending on home field advantage, but it’s usually in that range.

That suggests we have a matchup that would be a pick ‘em on a neutral field. It’s not quite that simple, but it shows you how close these two teams are viewed. And the numbers back it up. The Cowboys enter Week 10 ranked No. 4 in overall efficiency, ranking No. 1 on offense and No. 17 on defense. The Vikings enter the game ranked No. 6 in overall efficiency, ranking No. 7 on both offense and defense.

Another interesting comparison is net yards per play. The Cowboys top the list at 1.6 net yards per play, while the Vikings are fourth at 1.0 net yards per play. It’s a favorite of the sports betting set given that it eliminates random factors like turnovers, botched kicks, and special teams touchdowns. No stat is perfect, but this is a helpful one for determining who is good somewhat independent of randomness.

This should be a fun game, but it’s also a tough one to predict. I’m inclined to lay the field goal with the Cowboys as I think we see Kirk Cousins crap the bed on national television. He’s had some big games this year, but Cousins is due for a bad one under the lights. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings defense has been a little shaky of late. I think we see Dak Prescott take advantage of it and the Cowboys cover the field goal spread in the win.

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