The Kansas City Chiefs edged out the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9, and there is a decent chance quarterback Patrick Mahomes returns in time for their Week 10 contest against the Tennessee Titans. He was inactive for a second straight game, but the timeline suggests Week 10 for a return.
Mahomes dislocated his kneecap on Thursday, October 17th against the Denver Broncos. Sunday marked 17 days since the injury, and NFL reporter Jay Glazer offered some insight from the medical side of things. Week 10 will move Mahomes past a significant part of the recovery timeline.
Reason Mahomes isn’t playing today? Doc told them he had 40% chance of re-dislocating kneecap inside of 21 days but goes down to 10-15% after 21 days. Today is 17 days @NFLONFOX— Jay Glazer (@JayGlazer) November 3, 2019
The chance still exists that Mahomes will re-dislocate the knee cap. These percentages are generally speaking and do not address the specifics of a given player’s situation. But once you reach those stages, you just have to operate within the confines of what you know.
Fantasy football analysis: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes is not a lock to play this week for fantasy owners, but clearly he is getting closer. The big question, regardless of when Mahomes returns, is how close he will be to 100 percent. He’s a great quarterback even at 75 or 80 percent, but he likely drops down a tier when you limit his ability to move. He’ll still be a QB1, but you will want to lower your weekly expectations a little bit until we see how he looks when he returns and how he looks as fantasy playoffs approach.
Oddsmakers have a healthy Mahomes worth six or so points per game to the point spread. The Chiefs were field goal underdogs to the Vikings, but their line is a work in progress for Week 10 vs. the Titans. DraftKings Sportsbook does not have a line yet, while a few sportsbooks in Las Vegas have the Chiefs at -3.5. It’s a road game for Kansas City, but it remains to be seen how much those shops are baking in a potential Mahomes return. I suspect it’s moderately, but not much, and so they would adjust to a touchdown or more if Mahomes is announced as the starter.