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Taking the points at home with the Lions to stay away from Mitchell Trubisky

The Lions are home underdogs on Thanksgiving against the Bears. We break down the key reason to take the points.

Thanksgiving is upon us, and that means we get our annual triple-header of NFL action. The day gets going with the Detroit Lions hosting the Chicago Bears in the game with the fewest implications. The 3-7-1 Lions will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, while the 5-6 Bears will be all but eliminated with a loss.

The Bears are a 5.5-point road favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with a point total of 38.5. The Bears are -167 on the money line, while the Lions are +145. Chicago is 3-8 against the spread this season and has gone over the point total three times. Detroit is 4-7 ATS and has gone over the point total seven times.

This game marks the fourth time this season the Bears have been a road favorite. They were 6.5-point favorites in Oakland, five point favorites in Washington, and three point favorites in Denver. Chicago is 2-1 straight up and 1-2 ATS in those games. Meanwhile, this is the fifth time Detroit has been a home underdog this season. They were touchdown dogs to Dallas, 2.5-point dogs to Minnesota, touchdown dogs to Kansas City, and one-point dogs to the Chargers. Detroit was 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in those games.

Injury report


TE Ben Braunecerk: OUT
WR Taylor Gabriel: OUT
OT Bobby Massie: OUT
DB Sherrick McManus: OUT
TE Adam Shaheen: OUT
LB Danny Trevathan: OUT


QB Jeff Driskel: Questionable (not expected to play)
DE Trey Flowers: Questionable
DL Da’Shawn Hand: Questionable
DT Damon Harrison Sr.: Questionable
TE T.J. Hockenson: Questionable
DB Tracy Walker: Questionable
CB Jamal Agnew: OUT
WR Marvin Hall: OUT
CB Rashaan Melvin: OUT
QB Matthew Stafford: OUT

Pick against the spread

This game just got more complicated. Jeff Driskel is not expected to play due to a hamstring injury. David Blough will start in his place. Even with the QB change, I simply cannot lay points with Mitchell Trubisky on the road. If this game was in Chicago, I’d consider laying 4.5 points with Trubisky, but on the road on a short week, I just can’t justify the pick. The entire free world will be picking the Bears with Driskel sidelined. I will go the other way and take the points against Trubisky.

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