Deshaun Watson (DFS salary $6,700) and the Houston Texans struggled to find their footing last week against the Carolina Panthers, dropping to 2-2 with every other team in the AFC South. Matt Ryan ($5,900) and the Atlanta Falcons have fired up a two-game losing streak, regardless of averaging the second-most passing yards per game. Now, the two will face off in the state of the longhorns, both looking to steer (I know, that was a reach) themselves back on track.

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The home team has won in each of the four games which these two franchises have met. The last occurrence was in 2015, with the Falcons winning 48-21. But the Texans have since added Deshaun Watson, evening up the quarterback matchup. Both QBs have the pleasure of throwing to two of the league’s elite wide receivers. It will be very interesting to see whether DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800 and highest-priced WR) or Julio Jones ($7,700, second-highest-priced) puts up the bigger stat line. Neither receiver did anything special last week in their respective team losses, but I’d expect some sort of a bounce back.

The Falcons have been outscored 38-10 in first quarters this season, yet the Texans haven’t scored a touchdown in the opening quarter. The over/under is set at 50 points, which is tied for the second-highest on the week. But if the Texans don’t jump out to an early lead and force the Falcons into their normal play-from-behind game plan, this game could easily stay under. And if that’s the case, I think this will come down to the wire, much like every other Texans game this season, allowing the Falcons to cover the spread.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Falcons at Texans

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Falcons +4
Total Points: 50
Money Line: Falcons +170; Texans -200

Records

Overall: Falcons 1-3; Texans 2-2
ATS: Falcons 1-3; Texans 2-2
O/U: Falcons 1-3; Texans 1-3

Notable Prop Bets

Falcons:

• Devonta Freeman over 25.5 receiving yards: +105
• Austin Hooper to score a TD: +180

Texans:

• DeAndre Hopkins to score a TD and team to win: +115
• Will Fuller over 57.5 receiving yards: +108

Betting Trends

• The Texans have won eight of their last nine home games in October.
• The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 13 games against AFC opponents.
• Each of the Texans’ last seven day games at NRG Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Deshaun Watson has scored the first touchdown in each of the Texans’ last three games following a loss.
• Julio Jones has scored the last touchdown in each of the Falcons’ last three games as underdogs.
• Julio Jones has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Falcons’ last seven Sunday road games.
• DeAndre Hopkins has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Texans’ last five games as favorites following a home loss.

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