Miami claims best odds for No. 1 pick, Arizona a distant second

The NFL is only just through the first quarter of the 2019 schedule, but we already know who some of the truly awful teams are around the league. The college football season is only a third of the way complete and the draft is still nine months away, but the Tank for Tua Tagovailoa movement appears to be on.

The Miami Dolphins appear to be trying to trade anything that isn’t nailed down. They’ve accumulated a host of first and second round picks over the next two years, and are on track to claim the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Miami is 0-4 on the season, and joined by five other unbeaten teams. Washington, Denver, and Cincinnati are also 0-4, the New York Jets are 0-3, and Arizona is 0-3-1 thanks to their tie with Detroit. Right behind those teams are the 1-3 Falcons and Steelers.

The Dolphins are garbage, but things are fairly wide open. And naturally, you can wager on who will win the potential Tua sweepstakes. DraftKings Sportsbook is offering odds on which team will claim the No. 1 pick. Miami is a heavy favorite, to the point that there’s serious juice on them at -125. Arizona is next on the list, but well behind Miami at +550.

I’m a little surprised Arizona has the second best odds. They do play in a tough division with San Francisco, Seattle, and LA potentially giving them six losses just like that. But that tie could be a difference-maker — especially considering Miami is bad enough to go winless this season.

Everybody outside of Miami holds a little bit of value, but what about Denver? Joe Flacco is washed up, and they just lost Bradley Chubb to a torn ACL. At +1100, they’re an intriguing option to finish with the worst record. Washington and Cincinnati are both intriguing options ahead of them, but both have arguments against them. Washington could move to a talented rookie QB, and that leaves plenty of questions. Meanwhile, Cincinnati could get A.J. Green back in the coming weeks, which at least makes them a little better — albeit not enough to be particularly good.

If you’re looking for a little outside analysis on this, Football Outsiders uses DVOA to come up with odds for the top pick and a top five pick. FO gives Miami a 63.3 percent chance of “earning” the top pick. Cincinnati is next at 14.6 percent, followed by Washington (7.3), Arizona (5.1, and Denver (4.8).

Here is a full list of DraftKings Sportsbook odds for each team to claim the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Miami Dolphins: -125
Arizona Cardinals: +550
Washington: +600
Cincinnati Bengals: +700
Denver Broncos: +1100
New York Jets: +1400
Pittsburgh Steelers: +3300
New York Giants: +5000
Oakland Raiders: +5000
Atlanta Falcons: +6600
Indianapolis Colts: +10000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +10000
Tennessee Titans: +15000
Detroit Lions: +20000
Jacksonville Jaguars: +20000
Carolina Panthers: +25000
Minnesota Vikings: +25000
Cleveland Browns: +30000
Houston Texans: +30000
Baltimore Ravens: +50000
Buffalo Bills: +50000
Los Angeles Chargers: +50000
Philadelphia Eagles: +50000
San Francisco 49ers: +50000
Seattle Seahawks: +50000
Chicago Bears: +75000
Dallas Cowboys: +100000
Green Bay Packers: +100000
Los Angeles Rams: +100000
New Orleans Saints: +100000
Kansas City Chiefs: +500000
New England Patriots: +500000