Jimmy Garoppolo performance update

Garoppolo finished the game throwing for 317 yards and a single game career-high four touchdowns. He finished the game with 31.88 DKFP. We broke down his performance here.

In Carolina last Sunday, Jimmy Garoppolo played a solid game, completing 18-of-22 passes for 175 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in a 51 to 13 blowout. If you didn’t watch the game and started Garoppolo, you might have been ready to collect a whole gob of points from your quarterback after his team put up a 50 burger, but alas, the 49ers rushed for five touchdowns and over 200 yards while their franchise quarterback handed the ball off.

Garoppolo finished the week as QB19 in fantasy and right now he ranks 27th in fantasy points per game for quarterbacks. The addition of Emmanuel Sanders should help, but an efficient running game and dominant defense will continue to limit his upside.

Fantasy Football Analysis, San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo

So far, Arizona has allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, with big games to Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, Kyle Allen, Matt Ryan, and Drew Brees. They rank 27th in DVOA against the pass and 26th against the run so that they can be beaten through the air or on the ground, and that’s where Garoppolo’s numbers face their most significant obstacle this week. Will the Cardinals be able to score and stop the run enough to push Garoppolo to throw more than his 27.1 times per game, which ranks 31st in the league?

The Cardinals offense is uptempo but still ranks 20th in points scored per game, and the 49ers are favored by 10-points, and they have the No. 1 defense in the league. That doesn’t doom Garoppolo, as his team should score points, and in turn, he will have opportunities to put up fantasy stats around the goal line. The trouble has been, the 49ers have thrown the ball 30 times compared to running the ball 50 times once in the red zone this season. If you take that down to inside the ten-yard line, the ratio is 15 to 27, and inside the five, it’s nine to 16.

I believe Garoppolo can put up good numbers in this game, but the odds are that he won’t be needed to do much more than hand the ball off. He is a borderline call this week, as there are three useful starters out due to byes, with Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Jared Goff taking a week off, and the Cardinals are a good matchup. If you need him, he shouldn’t kill you, but his upside is low.

Traditional Fantasy Start/Sit Recommendation

Sit.

DraftKings DFS Recommendation

With his ceiling low this week, Garoppolo won’t be on my DraftKings radar except in Showdown games. When putting a Showdown team together, it will be hard not to take into account Tevin Coleman’s role in the offense, especially with injuries to Raheem Mostert and Matt Breida possibly narrowing that role. Garoppolo’s upside is likely linked to Coleman and whoever backs him up, as short passes with big yards after the catch are in his wheelhouse, but so far, he’s targeted running backs 39 times to 56 targets for tight ends and 91 to wide receivers. The good news is that George Kittle is set up for success this week against the Cardinals awful tight end defense and he is likely the key to a strong fantasy performance for Garoppolo. Stacking Kittle and Garoppolo will likely be a chalky pairing, but one that has a good chance of hitting for the Showdown.

Kyler Murray always has good upside due to his rushing ability, but he is riskier than Garoppolo due to his suspect offensive line and the 49ers No. 1 in adjusted sack rate ranking. We want to go for upside in Showdowns, but even Murray’s upside takes a big hit against the 49ers.