It’s all about mixing and matching salaries in DFS. You can’t field a team full of stars and thus you must find the best values around the slate and fade those who come overpriced for the production they will return.
So don’t get fooled by the boldness of the names, and rather look at their games. Sometimes highly coveted quarterbacks can put out a dud, while others can go under-the-radar in Sunday’s main slate.
Here are the best and worst values at the position for Week 9 (values from DraftKings).
Week 9 - DFS QB Best Values
Derek Carr, OAK (vs DET) — $5,500
No wonder the game between Detroit and Oakland makes for the second-highest total of Sunday (50.5 points) given the pair of quarterbacks leading those teams. Carr gets the edge over Stafford as the best value given he comes in a sweet $1,300 cheaper than the Lion this weekend. Carr has been able to string together a couple of great performances in his last two games. He has passed for 293 and 285 yards, with two and three touchdowns respectively and just one interception. This has kick-started a promising trend, as Carr has elevated his yards per attempt from an average of 6.9 after his bye week all the way up to 10 in weeks 7 and 8, and just this last weekend he threw five passes more than 20 yards downfield. Although he went home with two losses against Green Bay and Houston, he still racked up 17.7 and 23.4 DKFP. This week, the Lions enter the game ranked as the sixth-worst defense in fantasy points allowed to QBs after being torched by Minnesota (338 yards, 4 TD, 33.2 DKFP) and the Giants (322 yards, 4 TD, 32.2 DKFP) lately.
Matthew Stafford, DET (at OAK) — $6,800
And at the other end of the field, there will be Stafford. This game is a true paradise for fantasy players. If Derek Carr looks promising, he only has half the upside Stafford brings to the equation. The salary difference is big, yes, but it is well worth it this weekend. The Raiders defense is even worse than Detroit’s against opposing QBs, ranking second-worst giving up 25.1 DKFP per game to the position. They have allowed 400-plus yards and four or more TDs two times this season to top-tier quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers) and they could very well end up burned by Stafford next. Stafford himself is scorching hot, having passed for 706 yards and seven touchdowns on 55 completions combined in his last two games. Don’t believe the haters trying to put Stafford on a corner and labeling him as done. Stafford is having his best fantasy season since 2011 and he’s just five touchdowns away from reaching his mark from last season. It’s all about pilling on numbers with him.
Week 9 - DFS QB Worst Values
Aaron Rodgers, GB (at LAC) — $6,900
After putting on a show a couple of weeks ago against Oakland—horrible defense, ranked 31st against QB—in a game that he finished with 429 yards and five touchdowns passing, and an extra one rushing, Rodgers came back to earth a bit last weekend. He still was a showman throwing for 305 yards and three scores, but the regression was obvious and I’m betting on it continuing its downward trend. The Chargers are the seventh-best defense in points per game allowed to QBs (15.6 DKFP) and have limited the position to under 182 yards or no touchdowns in four of their five last games. Rodgers has not had a streak of three games with 30-plus fantasy points since his best days in 2010, has not thrown three-plus touchdowns in three consecutive games since early 2017, and in he topped 300 passing yards just four times last season. He has done so three times this year, so I’m not trusting him doing it again against the Chargers, much less looking at the Packers receiving corps status.
Carson Wentz, PHI (vs CHI) — $5,700
Every word you read or hear about Wentz is related to how he is playing a tad bit under the expectations. Truth be told, that’s correct. Not since his rookie season has Wentz averaged fewer DKFP per game (17.7 through Week 8), including three performances of under-20 points and even one of 9.8 in Week 7 against Dallas. His raw numbers don’t help matters, as he’s logged fewer than 200 passing yards in four of his last five games. Yes, he’s been able to keep errors mostly at bay (he only has four interceptions so far) but his game has been average at best. Wentz has had his best performances this year against defenses ranked out of the top 10 in fantasy points given up to QBs, but this week he faces a Bears team ranked sixth-best at it (allowing 15.3 DKFP per game to the position). Chicago has surrendered 300-plus yards passing just once (Washington, Week 3), and in its other six games played they have allowed two touchdowns only once, limiting quarterbacks to one or none in five of their seven games overall. Considering Zach Ertz’s middling season and the injuries to the offense, I would not pay for Wentz this weekend.
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