Although it’s only Week 7, it’s games like this one that can massively impact the outcome of a team’s season. The Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts have dominated the AFC South, with one of the two finishing as division winners in 14 out of 17 seasons. The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tennessee Titans (both 2-4) don’t appear to have any shot at threatening that from being the case again this season. Which brings us to Sunday: the first matchup between the AFC South contenders.

I discussed this game from a betting perspective when the odds were initially released in an article on Monday, and my intrigue hasn’t changed. The Colts remain 1-point favorites at home, which essentially means you can approach this game as a pick-em. The Colts will be well rested after their bye week, but the Texans’ offense has been on a tear, averaging 42 points over the past two weeks. Interestingly enough, each of their last games featured them as underdogs against the Chiefs, ultimately ending as a road win. Houston and Indy will have momentum going for them, which will hopefully result in one of the best battles of the week.

As mentioned, Houston’s offense has been on fire, and all eyes will be on Deshaun Watson (DFS salary $7,000) to see if he can finally reconnect with DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800,) who has been relatively quiet since putting up 34.10 DKFP in Week 1. My attention is shifting to the top receiver on the Colts, though. In 14 career games vs. the Texans, T.Y. Hilton ($5,900) has averaged 103.2 receiving yards and caught nine touchdowns. Now, obviously that’s a stat we shouldn’t base all of our decisions off of, but it’s an interesting note. We’ve seen what he can do with Jacoby Brissett ($5,600,) as the pair has linked up for four TDs through four games together. If Hilton lives up to his typical standard against the Texans, I’m predicting the Colts get the victory, covering the spread and hitting the over.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Texans at Colts

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Texans +1
Total Points: 47
Money Line: Texans +100; Colts -114

Records

Overall: Texans 4-2; Colts 3-2
ATS: Texans 4-2; Colts 3-1-1
O/U: Texans 3-3; Colts 3-2

Notable Prop Bets

Texans:

• Carlos Hyde under 65.5 rushing yards: -103
• Duke Johnson over 2.5 receptions: +133

Colts:

• T.Y. Hilton to have more receiving yards than DeAndre Hopkins: +117
• Eric Ebron to score a TD and team to win: +400

Betting Trends

• The Colts have won seven of their last eight home games.
• The Colts have covered the spread in four of their last five games against the Texans.
• Nine of the last 10 games between the Texans and Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Deshaun Watson has scored the first touchdown in each of the Texans’ last two regular season games against AFC South opponents.
• Eric Ebron has scored a touchdown in each of the Colts’ last four games against AFC South opponents.
• T.Y. Hilton has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four appearances in day games.
• DeAndre Hopkins has scored a touchdown in each of his last four appearances in road games against AFC South opponents.

Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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