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What betting stats tell us about Week 7 NFL picks

The betting public can tell us a lot about each matchup based on how they’re moving their money. Here’s a look at the betting splits midway through Week 7 of the NFL season.

Atmosphere at the Grand Opening of DraftKings Sportsbook at Resorts November 20, 2018 at Resorts Casino Hotel in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Photo by Bill McCay/Getty Images for Draft Kings

The NFL kicks off Week 7 with a huge divisional matchup on Thursday Night Football. The Denver Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs in a game that is a lot more important than many thought it would be two weeks ago. The Broncos have won two straight while the Chiefs have lost two straight, and suddenly Denver could cut Kansas City’s divisional lead to one with a win.

The Chiefs are a field goal favorite, and the betting public loves them this week. 94 percent of the handle (money bet) and 93 percent of tickets bet on the point spread at DraftKings Sportsbook are on the Chiefs. The line opened as high as four, but came down due to some concerns over Mahomes ankle.

The money and tickets bet are based on the point spread, but it gives us an idea of what people think about a given matchup. If you’re making weekly NFL picks in confidence pools, the percentage bet can give you an idea of where to consider providing a little more confidence.

The most interesting results so far are where we have a split in money bet vs. tickets bet. Cardinals-Giants, Texans-Colts, Raiders-Packers, and Patriots-Jets all feature a notable difference between the two. There can be multiple reasons for that kind of distinction, but one can be that sharper bettors are betting more money on a given team even if there are fewer tickets bet by them. That’s not always the case, but it’s worth a note.

Here is a full rundown of betting splits via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chiefs (-3) @ Broncos: 94% handle, 93% tickets on Chiefs
Cardinals @ Giants (-3): 65% handle on Giants, even split of tickets bet
Texans @ Colts (-1): 55% handle on Colts, 65% tickets on Texans
Jaguars (-3.5) @ Bengals: 85% handle, 86% tickets on Jaguars
Rams (-3) @ Falcons: 84% handle, 86% tickets on Rams
Dolphins @ Bills (-17): 54% handle, 59% tickets on Dolphins
Vikings (-1) @ Lions: 84% handle, 74% tickets on Vikings
Raiders @ Packers (-5.5): Even split on handle, 65% tickets on Packers
49ers (-9.5) @ Washington: 96% handle, 93% tickets on 49ers
Chargers @ Titans (-2): 78% handle, 82% tickets on Chargers
Ravens @ Seahawks (-3): 63% handle, 59% tickets on Seahawks
Saints @ Bears (-3): 75% handle, 82% tickets on Saints
Eagles @ Cowboys (-3): 74% handle, 76% tickets on Eagles
Patriots (-9.5) @ Jets: 56% handle on Jets, 63% tickets on Patriots