Thursday Night Football continues this week, getting back to the divisional matchups after the Giants and Patriots met last week. While Week 7’s bout shouldn’t be as big of a blowout, it’s still quite a bit lopsided. Patrick Mahomes (DraftKings Showdown salary $12,000) and the Kansas City Chiefs visit Joe Flacco ($8,000) and the Denver Broncos. Though the point spread is only giving the Broncos three points, they will likely need more to cover.

This AFC West rivalry has the Chiefs leading 63-55 in its long history. The strange part is that over the past seven seasons, it’s been a one-sided affair for each team. The previous seven wins have gone to Kansas City, then the seven before that went to Denver. If win patterns determined the outcome of football games, the Broncos would be in line to take over, but that’s just not the way it works. Even though their first six games of this season have been a mirror image of the other (Chiefs won the first four and loss the last two, Broncos lost the first four and won the last two,) the Chiefs are simply a much better team.

Yes, Kansas City’s defense is arguably bad, as it’s allowing the sixth-most yards per game, while the Broncos are allowing the fourth-fewest. And yes, we’ve seen what a solid defensive performance can do against the Chiefs, when the Colts limited them in a 19-13 Indy win just two weeks ago. But that was a very well-managed game, and the Broncos don’t have the same capabilities as the Colts. Kansas City has scored 24 or more points in every other game this season, while Denver has only reached 24 points once, scoring 20 or fewer in the rest. The point I’m making is that the Broncos will not be able to keep up with the Chiefs’ high-powered offense, especially with Tyreek Hill ($11,200) fully recovered.

I anticipate this one staying under the projected 49 points, with the Chiefs clearly covering. After having his worst game of the season last week against the Texans, Mahomes will bounce back with a multi-touchdown game. Emmanuel Sanders ($6,400) and Courtland Sutton ($7,600) should be heavily involved as the Broncos will likely be playing from behind for most of the game, but don’t expect Flacco to overachieve. He may even keep his five-game interception streak going.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Chiefs at Broncos

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Broncos +3
Total Points: 49
Money Line: Chiefs -165; Broncos +143

Records

Overall: Chiefs 4-2; Broncos 2-4
ATS: Chiefs 3-3; Broncos 3-3
O/U: Chiefs 4-2; Broncos 2-4

Notable Prop Bets

Chiefs:

• Travis Kelce under 75.5 receiving yards: -106
• Tyreek Hill to score a TD and team to win: +190

Broncos:

• Noah Fant over 2.5 receptions: +120
• Phillip Lindsay under 15.5 rushing attempts: -112

Betting Trends

• The Chiefs have won each of their last seven games against the Broncos.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five night games.
• Twelve of the Broncos’ last 13 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
• The Broncos have won the first quarter in each of their last five games as underdogs following a win.
• Phillip Lindsay has scored the first touchdown in each of his last three appearances with the Broncos as underdogs against AFC West opponents.
• Travis Kelce has scored a touchdown in each of his last four appearances against the Broncos.
• Damien Williams has scored at least one touchdown in three of the Chiefs’ last four night games.

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