Betting on Matthew Stafford on MNF in Week 6 — Yikes

The NFC North is on display on Monday Night Football as the NFL closes out Week 6. The Green Bay Packers host the Detroit Lions in a game that could prove a lot more competitive than some might have guessed during the offseason. The Packers are 4-1 and lead the NFC North after a big road win over the Dallas Cowboys. The Lions are 2-1-1 and coming off a bye after a close loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4.

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total sitting at 45. The Packers are -177 on the money line, while the Lions are +155. The Lions are on a serious roll in this rivalry having won four and covered the spread in four straight games. Three of the four have gone over the point total.

The Lions are impressing through their first four games, thanks to a solid if unspectacular defense, and a strong start from a now healthy Matthew Stafford. Through the first quarter of the season, Stafford ranks sixth in DYAR and eighth in QBR. The defense ranks 17th in efficiency, but it’s an improvement from last year. It won’t wow people, but it’s a big reason the team has a winning record.

Green Bay might win a close one, but I like having that half point hook so I’m on the Lions +3.5 The Packers defense is a step up in difficulty for Stafford, but the bye week gave him and the offense time to prepare for them. I think we see a solid effort. On the other side of the ball, the Packers offense has been a little inconsistent this season. They blew out Dallas thanks to a huge day from Aaron Jones, but the passing game has been up and down for stretches. I’m just not quite feeling them enough in this one.

I’m leaning under on this one, but not enough to want to bet on it. I think both defenses will show up in the spotlight, but there are enough playmakers a 27-24 Packers victory — or something along those lines — wouldn’t surprise me.

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